Japan Economic ......

Japan Economic 

March 12,2016

After three years of Abenomics, the Japanese economy seems unable to return to a sustainable growth path. In Q4, GDP fell 1.4% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), which contrasted Q3’s 1.3% rise. More recent data suggest that weakness observed in 2015 carried into this year within a context of a relatively strong yen, faltering global demand (particularly from China) and growing doubts about Shinzo Abe’s ability to rekindle economic growth. Against this backdrop, on 26 February, the government announced that it could postpone the controversial sales tax hike scheduled for 2017 in order to avoid a sharp economic downturn. Analysts believe that if the tax hike is postponed, it could trigger another election as it happened in November 2014.

Japan Economy Data

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Population (million)	128	128	128	127	127
GDP per capita (USD)	43,021	46,440	46,792	38,270	36,425
GDP (USD bn)	5,509	5,939	5,971	4,873	4,628
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.7	-0.5	1.7	1.6	-0.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)	3.0	0.5	2.6	1.9	-0.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.8	0.3	2.3	2.1	-1.3
Investment (annual variation in %)	-0.2	1.5	3.2	3.2	2.4
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)	25.0	-0.4	-0.2	1.1	8.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)	11.1	5.9	5.3	3.0	7.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	15.6	-2.6	0.2	-0.6	2.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)	2.7	-1.0	1.8	1.0	1.7
Unemployment Rate	5.1	4.6	4.3	4.0	3.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-9.5	-9.5	-9.0	-9.1	-8.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)	190	203	210	212	211
Money (annual variation in %)	2.3	3.2	2.6	4.2	3.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	-0.4	-0.2	-0.1	1.6	2.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	-0.7	-0.3	0.0	0.4	2.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)	-0.1	1.5	-0.9	1.3	3.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
Stock Market (annual variation in %)	-3.0	-17.3	22.9	56.7	7.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	81.17	76.96	86.75	105.3	119.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	87.73	79.70	79.84	97.63	105.9
Current Account (% of GDP)	4.0	2.2	1.0	0.8	0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	221	130	59.6	40.6	24.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	75.6	-32.7	-87.3	-117.5	-122.4